I am hearing a lot of cheery optimism from those in the politically-engaged progressive blogosphere these days, about how the General Election of 2016 this November 8th is likely to be a shoo-in for the Democrats. This is deemed to be especially true if the GOP selects Donald Trump to be their nominee, as the Tea Party and a significant segment of alienated white America seems hell-bent on doing.
Regardless of who wins on either side, but presuming the current trajectory, any lefty/progressive/Democratic-leaning types predicting a progressive cakewalk in “the General” had better wake the fuck up. We’re about a modest economic slowdown from it being tough for EITHER Democrat to beat Trump . . . Hillary especially.
With all due respect to Markos at Daily Kos (who humorously wrote that even mentioning the possibility of a November 8th Trump victory over the Democrats qualified for "10 demerits") and hoping I do not qualify for any “demerits,” or whatever, some people on the progressive left seem to have drunk the got-danged kool-aid with regards to this: “Oh the General Election will definitely be won by the Democrats,” NONSENSE.
To get demographic, Trump’s electoral strength isn't just the overtly GOoPer teabaggers who have stained our collective subconscious since this country dared to elect a black President. There are a LOT of pissed off people out there . . . and quite a lot of them are disaffected white folks who for many years have been disengaged in the process, and who in many cases don’t normally consider themselves Republican, nor do they much care for the so-called “Tea Party.” But they know they are pissed off about something or other. Trump is doing a fantastic job of activating these people. At the risk of being anecdotal, I personally know a few of these folks — people who “weren’t into politics until Trump.” With the screaming lefty social base I have, trust me, the (mostly) guys I know who fit this Trump-ready description, are not alone. There are MILLIONS of them, likely. Con enough of these folks into to voting for the first time since Reagan or Clinton the First, and any Democrats’ natural advantage with African Americans, women and Latinos is going to seem a lot less firewalley**.
Yes, a lot of these newer potential voters are “low-information.” So let’s not forget that El Trumpo has amassed Capital-B Billion$ in his 30+ years as a celebrity, convincing idiots that everything he touches is golden. Say what you will about the egomaniacal, turd-breathed sleaze, he is VERY good at that; maybe the best on the planet.
And sewing your campaign up into white racialist and racist fears?-I mean sure, it’s scummy as fuck, an outrage and amoral hate-monge of the lowest order. But as an electoral strategy in these United States of America? — Fucking brilliant. Just seems like it could work, right off the bat. :-[
In recent history, Americans haven't shown much willingness to turn over the White House to just one party three elections in a row. The last time it happened was Bush the Elder back in 1988, and that was the first time since World War II! If you really want the third leg knocked from under the stool of complacency, NOW think about what might happen if the economy went into recession this year . . . you know, as much of the world seems to be. Yeah. Big problems; problems upon which a sleaze like El Trumpo and his GOoPer orc-people friends could EASILY capitalize.
At any rate, I’m a Bernie Sanders guy because I think Bernie will ALSO activate a lot of newer voters, especially younger ones, in a way that it’s hard for to imagine Hillary will. I get gallstones thinking about Hillary trying to woo Independents, which poll after poll shows to be an area of significant weakness. How exactly is that going to work? Or hey, let's flip that coin! Let’s try a base election and get hard left progressives fired up! We'll just turn these keys over to Team Hillary and uhhhhh . . . wait how is that going to work?
And as I already stated in the post below this one, one of Hillary’s problems seems to be letting candidates who no one thinks have a chance storm into elections. In 2008 it was Obama; this year she appeared flat-footed to the Sanders phenomenon for most of this fall, IMO. Who's to say she's not going to sleep on Trump too?
Lots of recent analysis seems to continue to indicate an uphill climb for Team Bernie. That I can mostly agree with. To that end I’d recommend folks take a minute to give to the candidate that will have an easier time with Donald Trump. http://www.donatebernie.org/
Regardless of WHO wins though, progressive Democrats had best be ready to throw the kitchen sink at the GOoPers when the time comes. I know I am, even if Hillary does become the candidate. Pretenses of a cakewalk in the General are greatly exaggerated.
**God I hate that term, "firewall."