. . . so armchair analysts like me know this: Obama is already going to take Iowa from the Republicans.
Mathematically, if in addition to flipping Iowa, Obama can also win Virginia; then he can then afford to lose ALL of the other Bush states, and that includes Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico. All of them. This nifty scoreboard from Daily Kos can help you sort the math out yourself. Just turn Iowa and Virginia blue, and watch what happens . . . Obama crosses the magical 270 mark.
So as a surprise to no one, Obama is working very hard to win Virginia, and is currently ahead by about 7.7% points on average. Mercifully, Virginia has traceable paper balloting. After election day, the state will have a Democratic governor and TWO Democratic senators, all of whom are immensely popular. This state is trending blue!
It's worth noting that Obama is also ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada and Missouri. Some of these states went for Kerry in 2004, others didn't. In some of those places, notably the big electoral guns of Florida and Ohio, the RepubliCons have a long history of successful cheating. If I were Obama I would not be betting my lucky stars on those two states. It's worth noting that Ohio now has a Democratic Governor, and importantly, a Democratic Secretary of State, the one in charge of counting votes. However, I understand the voting process there is still something of a shamble, and it may be possible for the GOP to steal a few hundred thousand here or there, and in a close race, that could make all the difference. Florida, of course, is a national joke, only not in like the ha ha funny way.
So Virginia it is, and should be. Obama needs neither Ohio, nor Florida, nor ANY OTHER BUSH STATE, if he can simply take Iowa - which is a foregone conclusion at this point - and Virginia.
It's hard to predict what will happen, but everything SEEMS to be going Obama's way at this point. The GOoPers are desperate, letting their relatively small and very disgruntled rallies turn into hateful mobs, while More-of-the-same McCain stumbles around like a drunkard on the economy, offering nothing but bailouts to the scum who got us into this fine state of affairs. It's pathetic and I really . . . truly . . . do not believe it's going to work this year.
If Obama takes Virginia early, and the race is all-but-officially over, I think we may see a massive landslide of nationwide karma. An epic smackdown appears to be in the works, and it's a smackdown of right wing hate, right wing ideology, and right wing screwing of the American people. I hope and pray and even donate some of my paltry income to the idea that such a smackdown is in the making, because I would love to hang my flag right side up, like a so-called "normal American."
If Obama loses Virginia, it's not over necessarily, McCain has a very tight tightrope to walk to victory, while Obama has a super-highway. He's ahead nationwide by around 7-10 points, and he's ahead in ALL of the so-called swing states. He could win Missouri, which has a gang of Electoral Votes; Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, which would clinch it; Ohio, North Carolina, or Florida - one of these giants and it's over. Obama is even on the offense in non-traditional swing states like Indiana, and Montana - though he's a little behind there right now.
[Knock knock knock - right on wood.]
It is going to be extremely . . . next-to-impossibly difficult for John McCain to win this election. I'll knock on wood again as I say that unless there is a political earthquake that could rival the one we're already experiencing with the state of our so-called "economy," Barack Obama should become the next President of the United States.
And on that day, I will fly my flag right side up.